2020年，面對新冠肺炎疫情巨大沖擊和復雜嚴峻的國內外環境，在以習近平同志為核心的黨中央堅強領導下，全國上下科學統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展，扎實做好“六穩”工作、全面落實“六保”任務，經濟運行穩定恢復。電力行業堅決貫徹落實黨中央、國務院決策部署，積極推進電力企業疫情防控和復工復產，為社會疫情防控和復工復產、復商復市提供堅強電力保障；四季度電力消費實現較快增長，經濟社會發展對電力的消費需求已恢復常態。
一、2020年全國電力供需情況
（一）電力消費需求情況
2020年(nian)，全(quan)社會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)7.51萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長3.1%，“十三五”時期全(quan)社會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長5.7%。2020年(nian)，各(ge)季度全(quan)社會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為-6.5%、3.9%、5.8%、8.1%，經(jing)濟(ji)運行穩步復(fu)(fu)蘇是用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回升的最主要原因。全(quan)社會(hui)用電(dian)量(liang)季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)變(bian)化趨勢，反映出隨著疫情得(de)到有(you)效控制以及國家逆周(zhou)期調(diao)控政(zheng)策(ce)逐步落(luo)地，復(fu)(fu)工復(fu)(fu)產、復(fu)(fu)商復(fu)(fu)市(shi)持續(xu)取(qu)得(de)明顯成(cheng)效，國民經(jing)濟(ji)持續(xu)穩定(ding)恢復(fu)(fu)。
一是第一產業用電量同比增長10.2%，連續三個季度增速超過10%。2020年(nian)，第(di)一產業用電量859億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同比增長(chang)(chang)10.2%，各季(ji)度(du)增速分別為4.0%、11.9%、11.6%和(he)12.0%。第(di)一產業用電量的快(kuai)速增長(chang)(chang)主(zhu)要是近(jin)年(nian)來國家加大農網改(gai)造升級力(li)度(du)，村(cun)村(cun)通動力(li)電，鄉村(cun)用電條件(jian)持續改(gai)善，電力(li)逐步代替人(ren)力(li)和(he)畜力(li)，電動機代替柴油機，以(yi)及持續深入推(tui)進(jin)脫貧攻堅戰，帶動鄉村(cun)發(fa)展，促(cu)進(jin)第(di)一產業用電潛(qian)力(li)釋放。
二是第二產業用電量同比增長2.5%，高技術及裝備制造業用電量增速連續兩個季度超過10%。2020年(nian)，第(di)二產(chan)業(ye)用電量(liang)5.12萬億千瓦時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長2.5%，各(ge)季(ji)度增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別為-8.8%、3.3%、5.8%、7.6%，復(fu)工復(fu)產(chan)持續推進拉動(dong)各(ge)季(ji)度增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)持續回升。2020年(nian)，制造業(ye)用電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長2.9%，其(qi)中(zhong)，高(gao)技術(shu)(shu)及裝備制造業(ye)、四(si)(si)大(da)高(gao)載能行業(ye)、其(qi)他制造業(ye)行業(ye)、消費(fei)品(pin)制造業(ye)用電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別為4.0%、3.6%、3.3%、-1.8%。三、四(si)(si)季(ji)度，高(gao)技術(shu)(shu)及裝備制造業(ye)用電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別為10.8%、11.9%，是當前工業(ye)高(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)發(fa)展(zhan)中(zhong)展(zhan)現出來的一大(da)亮(liang)點。
三是第三產業用電量同比增長1.9%，信息傳輸/軟件和信息技術服務業用電量持續高速增長。2020年，第三產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.21萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)1.9%，各(ge)季度增(zeng)速分別為-8.3%、0.5%、5.9%、8.4%，隨著復商復市的(de)持(chi)續推(tui)進，第三產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速逐季上升。2020年，信息傳輸/軟件和(he)信息技術(shu)服務業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)23.9%，得益于(yu)大數(shu)據、云計算、物(wu)聯網等新(xin)技術(shu)快速推(tui)廣應用(yong)，并促進在(zai)線(xian)辦公、生活(huo)服務平臺、文(wen)化娛樂(le)、在(zai)線(xian)教育等線(xian)上產(chan)業(ye)的(de)高速增(zeng)長(chang)。
四是城鄉居民生活用電量同比增長6.9%，四季度用電量快速增長。2020年，城(cheng)鄉居民生活用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.09萬億千(qian)瓦時，同比增長6.9%，各季度增速分別為3.5%、10.6%、5.0%、10.0%，四季度居民生活用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)再次實現快速增長，主要(yao)是12月(yue)份低溫(wen)天氣因素拉動(dong)采(cai)暖(nuan)負荷及電(dian)量(liang)(liang)快速增長。
五是西部地區用電增速領先，全國有27個省份用電量為正增長。2020年，東、中、西(xi)部和東北地區全社會(hui)用電(dian)量增速(su)分別為2.1%、2.4%、5.6%、1.6%。全國共有27個(ge)省份用電(dian)量為正(zheng)增長，其中，云南、四川、甘肅、內蒙古(gu)、西(xi)藏、廣西(xi)、江西(xi)、安(an)徽等8個(ge)省份增速(su)超(chao)過5%。
（二）電力生產供應情況
截至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)底(di)(di)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)22.0億(yi)千瓦(wa)，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.5%；“十三五”時期，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.6%，其中非化(hua)石能源裝(zhuang)機(ji)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.1%，占(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重從2015年(nian)底(di)(di)的(de)34.8%上升(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)底(di)(di)的(de)44.8%，提(ti)升(sheng)10個(ge)百分(fen)點；煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速為3.7%，占(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重從2015年(nian)底(di)(di)的(de)59.0%下降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)底(di)(di)的(de)49.1%。2020年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為7.62萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.0%；“十三五”時期，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.8%，其中非化(hua)石能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.6%，占(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重從2015年(nian)的(de)27.2%上升(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)的(de)33.9%，提(ti)升(sheng)6.7個(ge)百分(fen)點；煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速為3.5%，占(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重從2015年(nian)的(de)67.9%下降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)的(de)60.8%，降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)7.1個(ge)百分(fen)點。
一是電力投資同比增長9.6%，非化石能源投資快速增長。2020年，納入(ru)行業(ye)投(tou)資(zi)統計體系的主(zhu)要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)合(he)計完成投(tou)資(zi)9944億元(yuan)(yuan)，同比(bi)增長(chang)9.6%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源工程建設(she)(she)完成投(tou)資(zi)5244億元(yuan)(yuan)，同比(bi)增長(chang)29.2%，其中風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)資(zi)分(fen)別增長(chang)70.6%、66.4%、19.0%；電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)工程建設(she)(she)完成投(tou)資(zi)4699億元(yuan)(yuan)，同比(bi)下降6.2%，主(zhu)要因(yin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企業(ye)提前一年完成國家新一輪農網(wang)改造升級任務，占電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)比(bi)重(zhong)達(da)44.3%的35千(qian)伏及以下電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)投(tou)資(zi)同比(bi)下降20.2%。
二是煤電裝機容量占總裝機容量比重首次低于50%，新增并網風電裝機規模創歷史新高。2020年，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)新增發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)19087萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增加8587萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，其中新增并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)、太陽能發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)7167萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)和4820萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，新增并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模創(chuang)歷史(shi)新高。截至(zhi)(zhi)2020年底(di)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)水電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)3.7億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、火(huo)電(dian)12.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、核電(dian)4989萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、并(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)2.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、并(bing)網(wang)太陽能發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)2.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)合計9.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)重為(wei)(wei)44.8%，比(bi)上年底(di)提(ti)高2.8個百分(fen)(fen)點。全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)煤電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)10.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)重為(wei)(wei)49.1%，首(shou)次(ci)降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)50%以下。
三是并網風電、太陽能發電量快速增長。2020年，全(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.0%。其(qi)中，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)1.36萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.1%；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)(wei)5.17萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)2.5%；核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)3662億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.0%。并網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)并網(wang)太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)4665、2611億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)15.1%和(he)16.6%。全(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)2.58萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.9%，占全(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)(wei)33.9%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高1.2個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點。全(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)4.63萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)1.7%，占全(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)(wei)60.8%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)降低1.4個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點。
四是水電、核電設備利用小時同比提高。2020年(nian)，全國發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備平均(jun)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)3758小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)低70小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。其(qi)中，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)3827小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，歷(li)年(nian)來首(shou)次突(tu)破3800小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高130小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)7453小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高59小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)4216小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)低92小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，其(qi)中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)4340小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)低89小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；并網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)為2073小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)低10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)(she)備利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)1281小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)低10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。
五是跨區送電量同比增長13.4%。2020年，全國完(wan)成跨區送電(dian)量6130億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增長13.4%，各季度增速(su)分(fen)別為6.8%、11.7%、17.0%、15.3%。全國跨省送電(dian)量15362億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增長6.4%，各季度增速(su)分(fen)別為-5.2%、5.9%、9.9%、12.3%。
六是市場交易電量同比增長11.7%，交易電量占全社會用電量比重同比提高。2020年，全國(guo)各電(dian)(dian)力交易中心累計(ji)(ji)組織(zhi)完成市場(chang)(chang)交易電(dian)(dian)量31663億千瓦時，同(tong)比增長(chang)11.7%；其中，全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)(chang)中長(chang)期電(dian)(dian)力直接交易電(dian)(dian)量合計(ji)(ji)為(wei)24760億千瓦時，同(tong)比增長(chang)13.7%，占全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量比重為(wei)32.9%，同(tong)比提高(gao)2.8個百分(fen)點。
七是四季度電煤供應偏緊，電煤市場價格持續攀升。受(shou)經濟回暖及(ji)低溫寒(han)流(liu)影響，四季度電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)需(xu)求大幅增加，電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)供應偏緊，推高電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)市場價格。根據中(zhong)國沿海(hai)電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)采購價格指數（CECI沿海(hai)指數）顯示，10月份市場電(dian)煤(mei)(mei)價格進(jin)入(ru)“紅色區間(jian)”后持續攀升(sheng)。
（三）全國電力供需情況
2020年，全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)，部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)有(you)余，局部地(di)區(qu)用電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)偏緊，疫情防控期間電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)充足可(ke)靠(kao)，為社(she)會疫情防控和國民經濟發展提供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)堅強電(dian)(dian)力(li)保(bao)障(zhang)。分(fen)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)看，東(dong)北、西北區(qu)域(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富余，華北、華東(dong)、南方區(qu)域(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)，華中區(qu)域(yu)(yu)用電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)偏緊。分(fen)省份看，迎峰(feng)(feng)度(du)夏期間，湖南、四川等少數(shu)電(dian)(dian)網用電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段采(cai)取了有(you)序(xu)用電(dian)(dian)措施；迎峰(feng)(feng)度(du)冬期間，湖南、江西、廣西以及內(nei)蒙古西部電(dian)(dian)網等少數(shu)電(dian)(dian)網用電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊張，采(cai)取了有(you)序(xu)用電(dian)(dian)措施。
二、2021年全國電力供需形勢預測
（一）2021年全社會用電量增長6%-7%
2021年，是我(wo)國實施“十四五(wu)”規(gui)劃開局之年、全(quan)面建設(she)社會主義現(xian)代化國家新征(zheng)程開啟之年。在(zai)新的(de)國內外環境形勢下，我(wo)國面臨的(de)機遇與挑(tiao)戰并存，綜(zong)合考慮國內外經(jing)濟形勢、電(dian)能(neng)替代、上年低基(ji)數等因素，以及(ji)疫情(qing)和外部環境存在(zai)的(de)不(bu)確定性，預計(ji)2021年全(quan)社會用電(dian)量(liang)增速(su)前(qian)高后低，全(quan)年增長6%-7%。
（二）非化石能源發電裝機比重繼續提高
預(yu)計2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)基建新增(zeng)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量1.8億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)，其(qi)中(zhong)非(fei)化石能源發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)投產1.4億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)。預(yu)計2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)底全(quan)國(guo)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量23.7億千(qian)瓦，同比(bi)增(zeng)長7.7%左(zuo)右(you)。非(fei)化石能源發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量達到11.2億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)，占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量比(bi)重上升(sheng)至47.3%，比(bi)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)底提高(gao)2.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)左(zuo)右(you)。風(feng)電(dian)和太陽能發電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比(bi)重比(bi)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)底提高(gao)3個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)左(zuo)右(you)，對電(dian)力系統(tong)靈活性調節能力的(de)需求進一步增(zeng)加。
（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區電力供應偏緊
預計2021年全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)總體平衡、局部地(di)區(qu)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)甚至緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)。分區(qu)域(yu)看，東北(bei)(bei)、西北(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)存(cun)在富余；華(hua)東電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)平衡；華(hua)北(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，其(qi)(qi)中，河(he)北(bei)(bei)和山東電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，通過跨省(sheng)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)支援，可基本保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)，內蒙古西部電(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，在風電(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)(li)(li)銳(rui)減(jian)時(shi)，多(duo)個月份將可能需(xu)要采取有(you)序用電(dian)(dian)(dian)措(cuo)施；華(hua)中電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)，主要是湖南(nan)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)，極端氣候情況下湖北(bei)(bei)、江西可能出現一定電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)缺口(kou)；南(nan)方(fang)區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)緊(jin)(jin)張(zhang)，其(qi)(qi)中，廣東、云(yun)南(nan)、廣西均存(cun)在較大錯峰(feng)(feng)限電(dian)(dian)(dian)風險。
三、有關建議
當前，在國(guo)家(jia)加快構建以(yi)國(guo)內(nei)大循環為(wei)主(zhu)體、國(guo)內(nei)國(guo)際雙循環相互促進(jin)的新發展格(ge)局背(bei)景下，在“中國(guo)二氧(yang)化(hua)碳排(pai)放力爭(zheng)2030年(nian)前達到峰值,努力爭(zheng)取2060年(nian)前實(shi)現碳中和”的目標(biao)要求下，一方面，電力行(xing)(xing)業要保障(zhang)電力安全可靠供(gong)應，以(yi)滿(man)足(zu)國(guo)民經濟發展目標(biao)以(yi)及(ji)人民生(sheng)活用電需(xu)(xu)求；另一方面，電力行(xing)(xing)業需(xu)(xu)加快清潔(jie)低碳供(gong)應結(jie)構轉型(xing)進(jin)程，實(shi)現碳減排(pai)目標(biao)。結(jie)合當前電力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)和行(xing)(xing)業發展趨勢(shi)，提出(chu)如下建議：
（一）保障電力供需平衡和安全穩定運行
2020年入冬以(yi)(yi)來，受宏(hong)觀經濟持續(xu)回暖以(yi)(yi)及低溫寒潮天氣等多重(zhong)因素疊加影(ying)響，電力消費(fei)需求(qiu)快速增長，部分省份在(zai)用(yong)電高峰時段電力供(gong)(gong)應(ying)緊張，出現有序用(yong)電現象。為保障電力安(an)全可(ke)靠(kao)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)，就電力燃料供(gong)(gong)應(ying)、電網結構、需求(qiu)響應(ying)等方面提出以(yi)(yi)下建議：
一是保障電力燃料供應。切實落實國(guo)(guo)家關(guan)于煤炭的保(bao)供穩(wen)價措施。增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)國(guo)(guo)內煤炭供應，對于安全條件(jian)好且具備生產(chan)(chan)能力(li)的煤礦，在(zai)保(bao)供的關(guan)鍵時期按照最大(da)(da)產(chan)(chan)能安排(pai)生產(chan)(chan)計劃。繼續(xu)加(jia)(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)先進(jin)(jin)產(chan)(chan)能的釋(shi)放(fang)力(li)度，進(jin)(jin)一步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)國(guo)(guo)內煤炭產(chan)(chan)能儲備，以應對經(jing)濟(ji)持續(xu)復蘇以及季節(jie)性氣(qi)候變化等(deng)對煤炭消費需求的增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)。進(jin)(jin)一步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)進(jin)(jin)口煤配額(e)指(zhi)標(biao)，允許異(yi)地報關(guan)，加(jia)(jia)(jia)速通關(guan)放(fang)行，快(kuai)速有(you)效(xiao)補充(chong)國(guo)(guo)內供應，釋(shi)放(fang)有(you)利于市場穩(wen)定的信(xin)號(hao)。加(jia)(jia)(jia)大(da)(da)電煤中長期合(he)同履(lv)約執行監管力(li)度，對于故意不(bu)履(lv)行或少履(lv)行電煤中長期合(he)同等(deng)行為要(yao)按照有(you)關(guan)規定嚴肅(su)查(cha)處。
二是進一步優化電網運行方式，強化電網風險預控。密切(qie)跟蹤經濟走勢(shi)、電(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)、天(tian)氣變化合理安排電(dian)網運行方式，加(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)電(dian)網運行方式和(he)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)平衡協調。推(tui)動建(jian)立跨省(sheng)跨區(qu)(qu)備用(yong)輔助服務(wu)市場，強(qiang)(qiang)化跨省(sheng)跨區(qu)(qu)交易組(zu)織保障(zhang)，充分(fen)應用(yong)跨區(qu)(qu)跨省(sheng)輸(shu)電(dian)通(tong)道能力(li)。對各種(zhong)情形(xing)下電(dian)網供電(dian)能力(li)進行風險評(ping)估，并根據結果制定合理的解決措施(shi)。
三是加快構建大規模源網荷儲友好互動系統。加強(qiang)源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)協(xie)同互動(dong)，對電力(li)柔(rou)性負荷進行(xing)策略(lve)引(yin)導(dao)和集中控制，充分利用(yong)用(yong)戶側資源(yuan)(yuan)，化解短時電力(li)供(gong)需矛盾。通(tong)過(guo)源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)協(xie)同互動(dong)的(de)整體解決方案，增強(qiang)電網(wang)柔(rou)性調節能(neng)力(li)，并基于(yu)柔(rou)性輸電技術加強(qiang)電網(wang)彈性，提升對特大自然災(zai)害(hai)、事(shi)故災(zai)難等極(ji)端情(qing)況的(de)承受和恢復能(neng)力(li)。
（二）推進能源電力供應結構低碳轉型
“十四五”是國家構建(jian)新發展(zhan)格局(ju)和能(neng)源電力結構轉型的關鍵期，為保障實現國家碳排(pai)放目標，促進電力行業(ye)低碳轉型，就規(gui)劃制定、電源發展(zhan)、用能(neng)終(zhong)端等方面提出以下建(jian)議：
一是堅持系統觀念，統籌規劃電力行業各環節有序發展。統籌考慮(lv)各(ge)類電(dian)源中長期規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)、網(wang)源規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)以及電(dian)力行業內部(bu)產(chan)業鏈(lian)條(tiao)的緊密接續，將國家清潔能(neng)源戰略(lve)更好融(rong)入電(dian)力規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)頂層設計，推動電(dian)力規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)從供應側、輸電(dian)網(wang)向(xiang)配(pei)網(wang)側、用(yong)戶(hu)端延(yan)伸。在用(yong)戶(hu)側和配(pei)電(dian)網(wang)緊密耦合的趨勢下(xia)，以客戶(hu)需(xu)求(qiu)為導向(xiang)，通過(guo)開展配(pei)電(dian)網(wang)差(cha)異化規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)來滿足終端用(yong)能(neng)需(xu)求(qiu)。
二是推動煤電發電量盡早達峰。統籌有序推進煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)規劃實施(shi)，有力(li)發揮(hui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)保底的(de)支撐作用。根據區域煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)的(de)特點以及在系(xi)統調節(jie)中的(de)作用和地位，推進機(ji)組(zu)(zu)靈(ling)活性改(gai)造(zao)，加快煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)向電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)調節(jie)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)源轉換。開展煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)延壽、相關配套政策(ce)的(de)系(xi)統研究。
三是保障高比例新能源消納。因地(di)(di)制宜發(fa)(fa)展新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，綜合(he)各(ge)地(di)(di)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)條件、電(dian)(dian)(dian)網條件、負荷(he)水(shui)平(ping)等因素優(you)化(hua)(hua)可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)目開發(fa)(fa)時序(xu)，堅(jian)持(chi)集中(zhong)(zhong)式(shi)和(he)(he)分布(bu)式(shi)并舉開發(fa)(fa)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)。持(chi)續優(you)化(hua)(hua)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展布(bu)局，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)進(jin)一(yi)步向中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)和(he)(he)南(nan)方(fang)地(di)(di)區(qu)優(you)化(hua)(hua)布(bu)局，在(zai)東(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)建立(li)多能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)體系，在(zai)西部(bu)北部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)加大(da)(da)風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)規模(mo)化(hua)(hua)、集約(yue)化(hua)(hua)開發(fa)(fa)力(li)度。提高(gao)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的滲透率，對(dui)于(yu)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納(na)困(kun)難的地(di)(di)區(qu)，可(ke)考慮(lv)部(bu)分60萬千瓦亞(ya)臨界煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組進(jin)行靈活性改造參與深度調(diao)峰(feng)。加快跨省跨區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)通道的建設，有效發(fa)(fa)揮大(da)(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網綜合(he)平(ping)衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，促進(jin)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納(na)。拉(la)大(da)(da)峰(feng)谷分時電(dian)(dian)(dian)價差(cha)，調(diao)動(dong)各(ge)類負荷(he)側資(zi)(zi)(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)參與系統調(diao)節(jie)，促進(jin)需求(qiu)側主動(dong)響應新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)出力(li)變化(hua)(hua)。
（三）建立健全市場機制和政策體系保障電力低碳轉型
“十四五”期(qi)間，新(xin)能源消納、煤電轉型都(dou)將面臨更多(duo)挑戰，為保障我國(guo)電力(li)加速(su)低碳轉型，就電價形成機制(zhi)(zhi)、中長(chang)期(qi)市場(chang)、現貨市場(chang)、碳市場(chang)等市場(chang)長(chang)效機制(zhi)(zhi)方面提(ti)出以(yi)下建(jian)議(yi)：
一是理順市場環境下電價形成機制。以第二輪(lun)輸配電價(jia)核定為契機，理順市場電價(jia)形成機制，將“價(jia)差”模式過渡到“順價(jia)”模式。總結(jie)市場電價(jia)結(jie)算經驗，研究相關措施(shi)擴大(da)市場峰谷價(jia)差，引入(ru)容量補償機制，促進不同類型(xing)機組進入(ru)市場，使價(jia)格機制滿足現(xian)貨市場要求。
二是加強中長期市場和現貨市場的協調。合(he)理確定(ding)中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期合(he)同在現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)的(de)交割方式及中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期交易曲線(xian)，促(cu)進(jin)中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)和現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)有效銜接。盡快完善外來電(dian)(dian)、優先發購電(dian)(dian)權參與市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)交易規則(ze)，明晰不平衡資(zi)金定(ding)義、分類以(yi)及疏導原則(ze)。進(jin)一步完善現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)，豐富交易品種，特別是(shi)靈活性(xing)資(zi)源(yuan)和備用資(zi)源(yuan)交易品種。建立容量市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)或容量成本補償機制，保障發電(dian)(dian)企業合(he)理利益。
三是加快和完善碳市場建設。根據碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中(zhong)和(he)(he)要求(qiu)，完(wan)(wan)善全國(guo)碳(tan)市(shi)場配額分配方案，科學(xue)測(ce)算全國(guo)碳(tan)市(shi)場發(fa)電(dian)行業配額總量和(he)(he)基準值，按照煤(mei)電(dian)在電(dian)力系(xi)統中(zhong)的功能定位，以市(shi)場機(ji)制(zhi)更好發(fa)揮煤(mei)電(dian)的兜底保供(gong)和(he)(he)靈活性調節電(dian)源作(zuo)用。完(wan)(wan)善交易機(ji)制(zhi)和(he)(he)規則(ze)，盡(jin)快發(fa)布中(zhong)國(guo)核證減(jian)排量（CCER）抵消機(ji)制(zhi)，推(tui)動發(fa)電(dian)企業從(cong)集(ji)團和(he)(he)企業層面(mian)積(ji)極參與碳(tan)交易，實現低成本減(jian)排和(he)(he)技術創新。
注釋：
四大高載能行(xing)業包括：化學原料和(he)化學制品制造業、非金屬礦物制品業、黑色金屬冶煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加工業、有色金屬冶煉(lian)和(he)壓延(yan)加工業4個行(xing)業。
高技術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)包括(kuo)：醫藥制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、金屬制(zhi)(zhi)品業(ye)、通用(yong)設備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、專用(yong)設備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、汽車制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、鐵路/船舶/航空航天和(he)其(qi)他運輸(shu)設備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、電氣機(ji)(ji)械和(he)器(qi)材制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、計算機(ji)(ji)/通信和(he)其(qi)他電子設備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、儀器(qi)儀表制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)9個行(xing)業(ye)。
消費(fei)品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)包括：農(nong)副食品(pin)(pin)加(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、食品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、酒/飲料及精制(zhi)茶制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、煙(yan)草制(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡織業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡織服(fu)裝(zhuang)、服(fu)飾(shi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、皮(pi)革/毛皮(pi)/羽毛及其制(zhi)品(pin)(pin)和(he)制(zhi)鞋業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、木(mu)材加(jia)工和(he)木(mu)/竹/藤/棕/草制(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、家具制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、造(zao)(zao)(zao)紙和(he)紙制(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、印刷(shua)和(he)記錄媒介(jie)復(fu)制(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、文教/工美/體育和(he)娛樂用品(pin)(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)12個行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。
其他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)為制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電分類的31個(ge)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)中，除四大高(gao)載能行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、高(gao)技術及(ji)裝(zhuang)備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、消費品(pin)(pin)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)之外的其他(ta)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，包(bao)括：石油/煤炭(tan)及(ji)其他(ta)燃料(liao)(liao)加工業(ye)(ye)(ye)、化學纖維制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、橡膠和(he)塑料(liao)(liao)制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、其他(ta)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、廢棄(qi)資源綜合利用(yong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、金屬制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)/機(ji)械和(he)設備修理業(ye)(ye)(ye)6個(ge)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。
東部地(di)(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)北京(jing)、天(tian)津(jin)、河(he)北、上(shang)海(hai)、江蘇、浙江、福建、山東、廣東、海(hai)南10個(ge)省（市）；中部地(di)(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)山西、安徽、江西、河(he)南、湖北、湖南6個(ge)省；西部地(di)(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)內蒙古(gu)、廣西、重慶(qing)、四(si)川(chuan)、貴州、云南、西藏、陜西、甘肅、青海(hai)、寧夏(xia)、新疆12個(ge)省（市、自治區(qu)）；東北地(di)(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括(kuo)遼(liao)寧、吉林、黑龍江3個(ge)省。
